Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016383 0.018547 0.020891 0.023621 0.026713 0.030108 0.034121
2025-08-31 0.012750 0.015676 0.019118 0.023470 0.028829 0.035221 0.043436
2025-09-07 0.011031 0.014351 0.018483 0.024009 0.031217 0.040318 0.052712
2025-09-14 0.009318 0.012694 0.017090 0.023247 0.031665 0.042800 0.058701
2025-09-21 0.008173 0.011586 0.016211 0.022951 0.032549 0.045771 0.065447
2025-09-28 0.007130 0.010472 0.015164 0.022248 0.032712 0.047657 0.070736
2025-10-05 0.006724 0.010203 0.015249 0.023124 0.035153 0.052918 0.081310
2025-10-12 0.006290 0.009838 0.015140 0.023669 0.037110 0.057586 0.091365
2025-10-19 0.005929 0.009538 0.015086 0.024269 0.039169 0.062537 0.102256
2025-10-26 0.005449 0.009000 0.014604 0.024131 0.040016 0.065620 0.110374
2025-11-02 0.005057 0.008564 0.014240 0.024135 0.041070 0.069082 0.119369
2025-11-09 0.004622 0.008016 0.013639 0.023679 0.041291 0.071150 0.126126
2025-11-16 0.004352 0.007731 0.013464 0.023954 0.042821 0.075614 0.137568
2025-11-23 0.004032 0.007330 0.013058 0.023786 0.043556 0.078759 0.146947
2025-11-30 0.003856 0.007169 0.013054 0.024333 0.045611 0.084403 0.161388
2025-12-07 0.003504 0.006654 0.012370 0.023562 0.045149 0.085390 0.167103
2025-12-14 0.003252 0.006305 0.011957 0.023261 0.045539 0.087972 0.176085
2025-12-21 0.002972 0.005876 0.011360 0.022549 0.045063 0.088845 0.181732
2025-12-28 0.002911 0.005870 0.011570 0.023437 0.047816 0.096224 0.201164
2026-01-04 0.002814 0.005783 0.011613 0.023989 0.049931 0.102490 0.218834
2026-01-11 0.002728 0.005713 0.011683 0.024598 0.052206 0.109252 0.238135
2026-01-18 0.002571 0.005481 0.011405 0.024457 0.052888 0.112753 0.250680
2026-01-25 0.002441 0.005294 0.011205 0.024462 0.053877 0.116970 0.265157